GenAI smartphones to take 19% of the 2024 units

GenAI smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 363.6% y-o-y in 2024 to 234.2 million units, says IDC, representing 19% of the overall smartphone market in 2024.

IDC defines GenAI smartphones as devices that feature an SoC capable of running on-device GenAI models by leveraging an NPU with 30 TOPS or more performance using the int-8 data type.

The market growth seen in 2024 will carry into 2025 with shipments of GenAI smartphones expected to grow 73.1% y-o-y. Moderate double-digit growth is expected for 2026-28.

By 2028, IDC forecasts 912 million GenAI smartphone shipments, resulting in a 2024-2028 CAGR of 78.4%.

“Market penetration is expected to exceed 60% within the first three years,” says IDC’s Nabila Popal, “however, the most significant impact of this evolution is anticipated in 2026, when mid-range devices are expected to adopt this technology.”

“GenAI smartphones are inevitable,” says IDC’s Anthony Scarsella, “the triple-digit growth in 2024 will be followed by four consecutive years of double-digit growth as device manufacturers look to incorporate GenAI capable features.”